Commentary: EUCO Meeting in October 2018

The European Council, for which stakes were high regarding at least the conclusions of BREXIT talks, ended without excessive controversy of confrontation and with soft conclusions, either regarding the ever-so-hot migration dossier or the provocative Italian budget. Neither Chancellor Merkel or President Macron, or any other leaders, made remarks worthy of notice, and the show was visibly ran by Chancellor Kurz; who seemed at least satisfied with the progress made on migratory issues and internal security. On the latter topic, the EU has set itself a more ambitious agenda regarding protection against cross-domain coercion by foreign actors, by adopting a well-structured language that will require heavy follow-up and coordination, asking for measures to be taken in the current legislature. This certainly confirms the role the EU can play in protect both its citizens and its interests.

While this calm is good on the surface, it seems that EU leaders decided to somehow kick the can down the road on BREXIT and the budgetary issues. Theresa May will return home with still no progress on the Irish border and with an uncertain plan to get an extension of the transition period; Giuseppe Conte will return with the semblance of a victory on the budget, perhaps further emboldening Italy in its anti-European path. With no interim November summit in sight, we can expect a flurry of intergovernmental talks to take place before the December council in order to smooth out all differences, at the risk of otherwise running into a tense holiday period.

European leaders convened yesterday for another round of Brexit negotiations. Statements of high level politicians did not give many reasons for optimism as the positions of the United Kingdom and the EU on the backstop provision remain far away from each other. No side is either willing to or capable of making concessions.

Brexit Outcome Depends on the UK´s Domestic Politics

The European Union remains united in its stance, requesting the UK to accept a backstop as agreed in December 2017. The EU seems resolved to keep its demands, leaving only two options for the UK government. Either it consents to the EU's proposals, or it will crash out of the EU without a deal. In the upcoming weeks, much will depend on the Prime Minister May's ability to rally MPs behind her vision of Brexit. If thing get out of her hands, the risk of a no-deal scenario will significantly increase.

Risk of No-Deal Scenario Remains Low

Having said this, it is still unlikely that the United Kingdom would leave the EU without a deal. The negotiations can continue until the end of November/December. There is also the historical experience with the last-hour debates regarding Greek debts. EU leaders usually achieve agreements at the latest possible time after all night-long negotiations. To paraphrase Donald Tusk: it always seems impossible until it is done.

Despite migration being the top agenda for today’s EUCO meeting, no tangible progress was made in terms of establishing a long-term sustainable framework for tackling migratory pressure. The list of inadequacies on numerous key issues remains high; quotas and processing centers outside the EU were lacking from today’s conclusions; reform of the Dublin Agreement, essential for a functioning Common European Asylum System, was only indirectly mentioned in an ‘encouragement’ of the Austrian Presidency to continue its hitherto unambitious work on the agenda; and the emphasis on band-aid solutions and lip service to combatting people-smuggling networks rather than tackling root causes continues unabated.

Without a strong framework, the EU remains unprepared for future migratory pressure. Given the newfound Czech and Polish resistance towards strengthening FRONTEX due to the supposed ineffiency of its mission (and the fallacious argument that it may take away from structural funds), despite having clamored for years about the need for strengthening EU’s external borders, it is evident that petty obstacles remain towards even fledgling initiatives needed to create a robust foundation for tackling migration. This EUCO meeting reaffirms most of all that the Council remains impotent in large part due to the schism between populists, who capitalize on crisis, and those who want to tackle the issues.