The Cipher Brief: Emmanuel Macron: More of the Same?

Macron has made his support of NATO crystal clear and insists that France must “honor its commitment to alliances” and “be a country on which its allies can rely.” This means there should be no changes in the French commitment to the deterrence efforts underway in the alliance’s eastern borders: France should maintain its engagements in the Enhanced Forward Presence in Estonia and Lithuania in 2017 and 2018 – implemented as a response to Russian adventurism in Ukraine and Syria and Russia’s own military buildup along its western border with the Baltics – and serve as a lead nation in the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force in 2019 – a force designed to deploy at short notice in response to any threats against NATO countries.

France’s strategic priority would remain the fight against terrorism, inside and outside of its borders. None of the current deployments is questioned by Macron, who has made the support of states in the Sahel, where French forces are still deployed in the anti-terror Opération Barkhane, a focal point of his platform. France’s participation in the global coalition against ISIS is not a point of contention, and Macron has mirrored the current position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the need for the removal of Bashar al-Assad from power in Syria. Similarly, his position on Russia is in line with the Quai d’Orsay’s: dialogue with Russia to the extent necessary for deescalating the conflicts in Syria and Iraq, implementation of the Minsk agreements to deal with the conflict in Ukraine, and condemnation of the illegal annexation of Crimea.

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