German Marshall Fund: What to Watch in 2017

The presidential election in France this spring is billed as the next big challenge to the liberal order. Aside from the simplistic narrative, eager attention will have to be paid to how a potential François Fillon victory reconfigures French thinking and role within Europe. The conservative candidate openly called for a “Europe of Nations” which France would lead, already putting him in clear opposition with the mainstream of European integration.

The real challenge for France will be to deal with domestic instability. In June 2017, legislative elections will likely give the National Front (FN) a much smaller amount of MPs than the popular vote would command. Therefore, Fillon’s first real challenge may well be to have to stave off criticism about the inadequate representation of the electorate, one that will carry for the five years of his term, and will be amplified by the FN in case of a lack of success in implementing his vision for a “Europe of Nations.” In parallel, Fillon’s planned economic reforms could well cause a winter of discontent in French streets.

Europe will not be the priority of France’s next president. A France unwilling to weigh in fully in European decision-making will be a determining factor in the EU’s balance of power. 

Celou publikaci s příspěvky všech expertů si můžete přečíst, v anglickém jazyce, na stránkách GMF.